36 hours was a real whiplash in Washington. Breakthrough or rupture in Gaza?
The prospect of a ceasefire agreement between Israel And Hamas, which seemed possible during the weekend, ebbed as Sunday turned into Monday. Then a moment, but who soon to evaporate.
So what’s going on?
When the president Joe Biden and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke by telephone Monday morning, hopes of a deal, negotiated thousands of miles away in the Qatari capital, Doha, seemed slim.
Instead, the focus was on what Mr. Netanyahu planned to do with the troops he had ordered to amass in southern Israel, just beyond Israel’s border fence with the city of Rafah, in Gaza.
Latest news in the Middle East: Follow live updates
As Netanyahu and Biden spoke, leaflets floated above Rafah, calling on more than a million people to leave and head north into Israel’s self-declared safe zones.
President Biden has repeatedly told Israeli leaders that America would not support a ground invasion of Rafah without a comprehensive, actionable plan for civilians – a plan that has not been presented.
But over the past six months, we have all learned that American influence over its ally Israel has its limits.
Even U.S. military officials have questioned the logic of a massive ground invasion of such a densely populated area.
They understand the fundamental military objectives of eliminating the last Hamas battalions hidden in Rafah. Certainly, these fighters are hiding behind civilians, but shouldn’t that encourage us to think rather than continuing despite everything?
Analysis: Peace in Gaza seems more distant than ever
A military operation doomed to failure?
The consequences of the Israeli policy of razing the towns north of Rafah remain to be calculated.
Beyond the elusive concept of “total victory,” Mr. Netanyahu never explained what his political goal was or who his political partner in Gaza would be.
According to most students of war and history, any military operation without a clear political objective is doomed to failure and will make a lasting settlement all the more difficult.
The phone call between Mr Biden and Mr Netanyahu lasted about half an hour and we are told it was “constructive”.
The president “clearly expressed” his views on the Rafah operation “which could potentially put more than a million innocent people in danger,” his spokesperson said.
But the feeling in Israel was that Operation Rafah seemed more likely than not.
Hamas agrees to ceasefire deal
Then, at lunchtime in Washington, news of a potential breakthrough.
Hamas issued a statement accepting the ceasefire agreement.
A great moment, it seems. But what exactly were the terms of the agreement they made? What matter was it? Was only Secretary of State Antony Blinken trumpeting during yet another tour of the region last week? He called him “generous”.
It wasn’t clear, and as I write, it’s still not entirely clear.
But in Rafah, they got wind of it. The scenes of jubilation were frankly sad to watch. They desperately need peace, but they are likely to be disappointed.
White House spokesperson unaware of latest bombings
A little later, no word from President Biden, but his spokesperson, John Kirby, was busy treading water. “We are currently reviewing the response,” the White House said.
Mr Kirby was then asked if he was aware that bombs were being dropped on Rafah while he was speaking. Was this not a clear indication that Mr. Netanyahu rejected everything Hamas had accepted?
He was unaware of the latest bombings, he said.
Then, in an optically terrible moment, as the White House spokesperson said (yet again) that President Biden was, at best, worried about something Israel was planning, Israel went ahead and did it anyway.
An IDF statement was released: “The IDF is currently carrying out targeted strikes against Hamas terrorist targets east of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. Details will follow.”
This press release confirms what our local teams on the ground are seeing and hearing with their eyes and ears.
Israel to send team to Egypt for ceasefire negotiations
My social media feeds are once again full of images that we could never publish for reasons of taste, but that we have seen so many times during this war.
Then a statement from Mr. Netanyahu’s office – the war cabinet had “unanimously decided that Israel would continue its operations in Rafah, in order to exert military pressure on Hamas in order to advance the release of our hostages and to achieve the other objectives of the war.
He added that a team would be sent to Egypt to “maximize the chances of reaching an agreement on terms acceptable to Israel.”
Jordan could be key to ceasefire
Rafah is of course part of Mr Netanyahu’s negotiating strategy.
President Biden happened to be having lunch with King Abdullah of Jordan at the White House as news of the Hamas deal broke.
In a conflict where we are looking for honest intermediaries to decipher what is really going on, perhaps Jordan is close?
It is a key Arab nation, made up of many exiled Palestinians, but a diplomatic partner of Israel and a key ally of America.
Netanyahu ‘jeopardizes deal by bombing Rafah’
After lunch, Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi made no comment when I asked him whether a deal was actually possible.
Then, a tweet from him: “Enormous efforts were made to reach an exchange agreement that would free the hostages and achieve a cease-fire. Hamas has presented an offer. If Netanyahu really wants a deal, he will negotiate this offer seriously instead he is jeopardizing the agreement by bombing Rafah.
The opposing view is that Hamas set a trap, subtly changing the terms of the deal, allowing the world to think that it was Israel that rejected it.
There is an indisputable trap: Gaza. A miserable cycle of human suffering in a locked strip of land.
Sky news